Surprisingly, the Detroit News tracking poll again shows Bush in the lead in Michigan 47-42. Neither side seems ready to believe this, but theories about the factors that led to Bush’s rise include gay marraige, and Kerry’s debate snub of Poland.

The latest RCP Electoral College prediction has Bush at 234 (including leaners like IA,NV &CO) , and Kerry at 211 (with PA & HI). Tossups include If Bush takes Michigan, that puts him at 251, which leaves needing just 19 more electoral votes from the 76 in the other tossup states: FL (27 ), OH (20), MN (10), WI (10), NM (5), NH (4).

Winning combinations with MI, and without FL are:
OH (20)
MN (10) + WI (10)
MN (10) + NM (5) + NH (4)
WI (10) + NM (5) + NH (4)