Free Advice

I’ve been struck by how the media in both Canada and the U.S. are trying to spin the election result as being somehow ‘tainted’ by the evangelical vote. (My understanding is that they did not represent a higher proportion of voters than in 2000.)

The reaction of many liberals seems to be: “Why won’t those jesus-lovin’, cousin-marryin’ idiots vote for us, the party of tolerance? No matter how many times we explain to them how stupid and evil they are, they keep voting for the other guys.”

But the lashing-out by the losing side is harsher than I would have predicted…

The unteachable ignorance of the red states (Jane Smiley, Slate)

…the good news is that 55 million Americans have evaded the ignorance-inducing machine. But 58 million have not…

Ignorance and bloodlust have a long tradition in the United States, especially in the red states…

Rove’s Revenge (Maureen Dowd, New York Times)

America has always had strains of isolationism, nativism, chauvinism, puritanism and religious fanaticism. But most of our leaders, even our devout presidents, have tried to keep these impulses under control. Not this crew. They don’t call to our better angels; they summon our nasty devils.

The new evangelicals challenge science because they’ve been stirred up to object to social engineering on behalf of society’s most vulnerable: the poor, the sick, the sexually different.

I guess some Democrats don’t want to admit that millions of reasonable, educated people made a rational choice when they chose W. over Kerry.

On Fox News Sunday, Chris Wallace asked Karl Rove and Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert if Bush would eliminate the income tax and replace it with a flat tax or sales tax/VAT.

Now, we all remember how popular the GST was when it was implemented by the Mulroney government, although I’m sure it would have been a totally different if the income tax was removed at the same time. Would Chretien have campaigned in ‘93 on a promise to bring back an income tax?

So, what effect would a the removal of the U.S. income tax have on Canada? No Canadian politician wants to be seen as following an American trend (”U.S.-style attack ads”, “American-style health care”), but wouldn’t this create a tremendous economic pressure to be competitive? After a few years of living beside an income-tax-free jurisdiction, would Canada have any highly-paid professionals left?

David Frum was the first I’m aware of to suggest that Arafat is dying of AIDS:

Speaking of media bias, here’s a question you won’t hear in our big papers or on network TV: Does Yasser Arafat have AIDS?

We know he has a blood disease that is depressing his immune system. We know that he has suddenly dropped considerable weight – possibly as much as 1/3 of all his body weight. We know that he is suffering intermittent mental dysfunction. What does this sound like?

Former Romanian intelligence chief Ion Pacepa tells in his very interesting memoirs that the Ceaucescu regime taped Arafat’s orgies with his body guards. If true, Arafat would a great deal to conceal from his people and his murderously anti-homosexual supporters in the Islamic world.

Now, an Israeli magazine offers some relevant quotes from Ion Pacepa’s memoirs.

Now that Kerry has conceded, what happpened to all the conventional wisdom (and superstition) that favoured him?

1) High turnout favours the Democrats. Not this time. For example, in Florida 2000 there were about 5.9 million votes cast, and Bush won by less than 2000, and in 2004, there were about 7.3 million votes cast. Result? Bush won by over 350,000.

2) The Incumbent Rule: Late deciders break for the challenger. This was pretty weak to start with, since the data quoted starts in 1956, and there has only been a significant effect 5 out of 8 times. If you flipped a coin 8 times, and 5 of them landed heads, you wouldn’t call it The Heads Rule: “Coin flips always favour heads”. And the exceptions to the ‘rule’ are: Nixon (0.2% is hardly a significant shift), Reagan & Bush Sr…. in other words, all the Republican incumbents were immune.

3) The Redskins Rule: The last Redskins home game has predicted the fate of the incumbent since 1936… until 2004. Ironically, the Boston Red Sox World Series victory spelled trouble for the senator from Massachusetts, since it showed that sports streaks only last until they end.

4) VP candidates can help win their states. North Carolina: In 2000, Bush beat Gore 56% to 43%. What was the John Edwards effect? In 2004, Bush beat Kerry, 56% to 43%.

5) Nader on the ballot hurts the Democrats. Massachusetts: 2000: Gore 60%, Bush 33%, Nader 6%. In 2004, with Nader off the ballot, Kerry 62%, Bush 37%. This suggests either that the Nader vote split 2:1 for Bush, or that Massachusetts voters liked Gore more than they like hometown boy Kerry.

Have I missed any?

Really, I have no idea what’s going to happen. My best guess:

Bush 279, including: FL OH NM CO NV
Kerry 259, including: PA WI MN MI IA NH HI

The two key states are Ohio and Florida. I’m pretty confident that Bush will take Ohio. Florida? Not so much.

Popular vote: Bush 51% Kerry 48%.