Free Advice

So, my predictions were about as as accurate as a coin toss – pretty much useless.

I guess there’s two things we can take from this.

1. History teaches us that at the last minute, the undecided vote usually breaks for the Liberals.

2. Over and over again, I fail to learn from history.

I’m so glad this is almost over.

The polls have been killing me. I think there hasn’t been any real movement in voter intent in the past two weeks, but CTV and the Globe had those crazy numbers last week, which they buried when the CPC went up, and ran as a top story when they “fell” to 38%.

Then last night, SES broke out their final poll into its three separate daily samples, with the final sample showing a gap of only 2.7%!

I don’t believe it for a second, but it’s all giving me an ulcer.

Anyway, here’s my fearless prediction:

CPC 135
Lib 89
NDP 30
Bloq 54

And some individual candidates:

Scott Brison WIN
Belinda Stronach LOSE
Anne McLellan LOSE
Paul Martin WIN
Olivia Chow WIN
Tony Clement WIN

Last week, while I was watching the Liberal attack ads on the computer, my four-year-old son climbed up onto my lap. After a minute he slid off and walked away.

“I don’t like that – it’s too scary.”

Then yesterday he saw a Conservative TV ad, the one with this image:

“Daddy, who’s that?”

“That’s our Prime Minister.”

“Ohhh.”

I thought I’d see if the Conservative ad was as scary as the Liberal one.

“Hey Douglas, does he look like a nice man, or a mean man?”

“No… he looks sad.”

“Yeah, I think he is.”

Now that a Liberal defeat seems all but certain, the mood of the press is turning to pity for Paul Martin.

For example, Margaret Wente’s take (Google link):

Mr. Martin may not have been Canada’s greatest PM. But at least he had a reputation as a principled and decent man. Now he just looks desperate. You almost feel sorry for him. All those years of waiting, wishing, planning, scheming. All that work. All those dreams. And now this.

But you can’t feel too sorry. Mr. Burton is right. This is not the way a serious country or a serious man should act. What we’re watching is a political death without dignity.

Mr. Martin should now realize that a win is out of reach, and switch to Plan C, to repair some of the damage to his party’s image, as well as his own:

1. Yank the attack ads, and apologize to Canadians for the negative campaign in general.
2. Stop predicting disaster if Stephen Harper and the Conservatives win. In fact, stop talking about Harper & the Conservatives entirely.
3. Start talking about his colleagues’ record of public work and past achievements, even if they occurred in the Chretien years.
4. Make the argument that Liberal MPs will play an important role in the next Parliament regardless of which party forms the government.
5. Say that no matter who wins Jan 23, he believes Canada has a great future.

This is not a Hail-Mary strategy for Paul Martin to eke out a win.

It’s a way for him to be remembered for something other than desperation and mean-spiritedness.

This is the main image at liberal.ca right now.

Geez, I’ve seen happier crowds at funerals.

This photo is begging for some thought bubbles. Photoshop, anyone?

(H/T: ‘Dave’ , at andrewcoyne.com)